There is general agreement that the Bay Area has major unmet transportation needs, but less agreement on specifics. Agencies, legislators and community organizations are all developing transportation plans. The Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC), the agency responsible for regional transportation planning, currently has two major plans of its own.
The first is the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP), a regularly-revised plan for transportation projects which can be built in the next 20 years with funding available from existing federal, state and local sources. There is little money available for expansionmore than 80% of RTP funding goes to maintenance and operations for the current system. Even so, MTC estimates an additional $6 billion is needed for local road repairs, and $2.2 billion to seismically retrofit the Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) system and replace old BART cars.
The second plan, the Bay Area Transportation Blueprint for the 21st Century, anticipates possible new funding sources for expansion projects. The initial project list included candidates from other MTC plans as well as "overflow" projects which could not be funded in the RTP. Other ideas came from the Bay Area Council and Bay Area Economic Forum's Bay Area Water Transit Initiative proposal, plans for new or proposed sales tax measures, transportation corridor studies, county congestion management agencies (CMAs) and regional transit agencies, and a series of public outreach meetings.
The Blueprint's Project Notebook of Candidate Projects describes projects to be considered for the final plan. The Notebook is organized into sections based on 14 specific travel corridors, regionwide projects and gateways to other regions outside the Bay Area. An alternative arrangement was illustrated in the October/November 1999 issue of MTC's Transactions. It includes three groups of projects by mode: rail expansion, ferry expansion, and rapid or express bus projects. A fourth group includes other priorities such as lifeline transit services to aid in the transition from welfare to work, seismic safety retrofits, and MTC's Transportation for Livable Communities program. Capitol costs are estimated at $22-33 billion; operating costs would be $500-830 million per year for additional service.
New funding may come with restrictions, and/or be project-specific. BART may ask voters to renew its property tax, originally used for construction of the system, to fund seismic retrofits. A planned high-speed rail link between Los Angeles and the Bay Area, not in the Blueprint, may result in a state sales tax increase proposal; this could compete with other potential funding sources for Blueprint projects, such as a regional gas tax or an increase in the state gas tax.
If the state Legislature increases funding for new infrastructure through ongoing general fund support, or by placing a bond issue on the November 2000 ballot, it is certain to define how new money is to be spent, although the Blueprint might influence those choices. Federal funding is subject to similar earmarking. Assemblyman Tom Torlakson and state Senator Don Perata recently announced a $33.5 million budget proposal to fund studies of some Blueprint candidate projects. Their goal is to compare proposed BART extensions with other alternatives and determine which projects are most cost-effective, best integrate with regional public transit and support desirable growth patterns. Congresswoman Ellen Tauscher has offered a plan for federal funding which is also targeted at certain regional projects.
The best chance to increase funding may be local sales tax measures, such as Sonoma County's measure on the March ballot. In November, Alameda County will consider extending its sales tax. In both counties, earlier measures failed to reach the required two-thirds vote (see May/June 1998 and September/October 1998 issues). A bill to extend or enact special transportation sales taxes by simple majority vote, Senator Burton's SCA 3, did not pass the Legislature last year but may be revived during this session.
While local projects often need state and federal funds to move forward, most projects in the Blueprint, particularly expensive rail extensions, will also require extensive local funding because there will not be sufficient money available from other sources. Therefore, local support for Blueprint projects is important, and local sales tax money essential. However, the success of a local sales tax measure often depends on which projects will be funded, and major regional projects may not be locally important, leaving these projects to be funded with regional discretionary funding, if at all. On the other hand, since many high-priced sales tax projects require large amounts of regional funding, the Blueprint could affect the future of projects important to local voters by directing how regional funds should be invested.
At the end of February, MTC Commissioners were considering options for effectively integrating the Blueprint with local sales tax measures. One approach would have MTC identify desired "outcomes" for sales tax plans before these plans are prepared, considering policy issues such as improving transit coordination, establishing a lifeline transit system, and developing a "trunkline" transit system around the Bay. MTC would monitor the plans, possibly adjusting RTP fund allocations to achieve these outcomes.
A second approach would distribute regional discretionary funding to projects which meet key regional priorities. The funding might come through new sales tax measures or a regional gas tax. Priorities could favor projects which would address specific regional needs such as maintenance, system management, community vitality, or transit/highway expansion in key congested corridors.
The Bay Area Partnership, the coalition of major regional transportation and environmental agencies, preferred the "policy guidance" approach at its recent meeting. Extensive public input has also been received during a second series of meetings jointly hosted by MTC and county CMAs. This information will be incorporated into the final Blueprint, which is anticipated to be released in late March or early April. It will contain project performance information and recommendations for how projects would be financed with new transportation revenues.
The final Blueprint will immediately encounter a variety of other ideas for regional transportation which will affect its future. Some community groups have differing viewpoints, epitomized by the Bay Area Transportation and Land Use Coalition's recent report World Class Transit for the Bay Area. Turning away from proposals for highway expansions, BART extensions and large-scale ferry service, the coalition's report emphasizes more intensive utilization of the existing infrastructure through express buses, round-the-clock service on key routes, and more rail service on existing lines. The proposal also urges a greater emphasis on smart growth planning and changes in transportation pricing to make transit use a more reasonable choice for consumers. The total capital cost is estimated at $12.2 billion, with no cost determined for operating expenses.
In addition, while the Blueprint Project Notebook is a tempting wish list of projects, not all will be included in the final plan. Some county CMA projects left out of the RTP may still not be in the final Blueprint. Politically appealing projects, such as the Southern Crossing bridge, may emerge to vie for the attention of state and federal legislators.
Unless the Blueprint is accepted as a unifying regional vision, it will serve simply as another soapbox in the ongoing struggle to influence the region's transportation future. Achieving consensus on this plan may be difficult, but may also be critically important for MTC as it begins to guide the next century of transportation in the Bay Area.
Leslie Stewart
For more information:
MTC's Blueprint: Doug Kimsey, 510/464-7794; dkimsey@mtc.ca.gov
Bay Area Transportation and Land Use Coalition: 510/540-7220; http://www.transcoalition.org
A helpful guidebook through the maze of transportation funding programs is available from the Metropolitan Transportation Commission. Moving Costs: A Transportation Funding Guide for the San Francisco Bay Area includes charts describing each funding source, the amount available, what the money can be used for and by whom, and who decides where the money goes. Other sections contain a description of the transportation funding process and a glossary of transportation jargon and acronyms. The publication is distributed free by MTC; order from the MTC-ABAG Library, 510/464-7836, or online from library@mtc.ca.gov.